Mu bufunzeIn‐depth industry update dated September 22: Akatale ka China aka monoethylene glycol (MEG) katuuse ku kifo ekikulu eky’okukyukakyuka oluvannyuma lwa sizoni ya “Golden September” ey’oku ntikko okulemererwa okutuukana n’ebyo ebyali bisuubirwa. Omuwendo gw’emirimu gyonna egya poliyesita wansi gukendedde okutuuka ku bitundu 74.2%, nga waliwo okusala okw’amaanyi mu kukola mu bitundu nga wuzi ya filament. Yuniti z’awaka ezikozesa ethylene ne coal‐to‐MEG zizzeemu okutandika mu bitundutundu, ne zisitula okugabibwa okutwalira awamu. Emyalo emikulu egy’omu East China gyakomekkereza omuddirirwa gw’okuggyawo ebintu mu wiiki 8 ez’omuddiring’anwa era ne giwandiika okuzimba kwagyo okusooka okw’ebintu ebitonotono. Endagaano enkulu eya MEG futures yaggaddewo kumpi ebitundu 3% wansi ku lunaku luno, ng’akatale kagazi bakkiriziganyizza nti enzirukanya y’okukung’aanya ebintu egenda kutandika mu Q4, ekitadde akazito akataggwaawo ku kugereka emiwendo.

Okulaba akataleNga September 22, akatale ka China aka MEG mu ggwanga kaawandiisa enkyukakyuka mu ngeri etegeerekeka. Nga geopolitical risk premiums zeeyongera okukendeera era nga “rising supply, falling demand” scissors gap mu industrial fundamentals egaziwa, endagaano ya MEG futures ekulembedde yasuubula wansi mu lutuula lwonna era n’eggalawo kumpi 3% wansi, n’esangula amagoba agazzeemu mu wiiki bbiri eziyise. Akatale ka spot kagonvuwa mu tandem: emiwendo gy’okuteesa mu spot mu East China gyagenda wansi, abasuubuzi baalaga okwagala okw’amaanyi okutunda, era abaguzi aba wansi baateeka oda entonotono zokka ezisaasaanidde olw’obwetaavu obukakali, ekyaleka endowooza y’akatale okutwalira awamu nga yeegendereza.

Oludda lw’okugabirira: Okudda engulu okutambula mu kukozesa yuniti z’omunda mu ggwanga, Okutuuka ku bintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga ebitonoObugabi obugenda bweyongera buli lukya bubadde bukulu obuvuddeko enkyukakyuka y’obwetaavu n’obwetaavu. Ethylene‐based MEG units, nga bawagirwa loose upstream ethylene supply and recovering processing margins, yakuuma omutindo gw’emirimu ogw’amaanyi ogusukka mu 82%, ng’ebifo ebikulu ebisinga bikola ku busobozi obujjuvu. Ku yuniti z’amanda okutuuka ku MEG, ebifo ebingi mu Northwest ne North China ebyali biggale olw’okufiirwa n’okuddaabiriza okwa bulijjo byaddamu okutandika ennyo mu makkati okutuuka ku nkomerero ya September, ekyaviirako okuddamu okw’amangu mu nkozesa eyesigamiziddwa ku amanda. Okutwalira awamu omuwendo gw’emirimu gya MEG mu ggwanga lyonna gwalinnya ebitundu nga 4 ku buli 100 wiiki ku wiiki, era ebifulumizibwa mu ggwanga buli wiiki byeyongedde nnyo.

Ku ludda lw’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga, okutuuka mu September ku myalo gya East China kwasigala nga kutono olw’okuddaabiriza yuniti z’ebweru w’eggwanga, okulwawo kw’okutwala emigugu n’enkyukakyuka mu ntambula y’emigugu mu nsi yonna, nga buli wiiki emigugu egiyingizibwa mu ggwanga gikendedde ebitundu nga 8% wiiki ku wiiki. Wabula ebifulumizibwa mu ggwanga ebyeyongera bimazeeko mu bujjuvu ekituli mu bintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga, ekivuddeko okweyongera okutuufu mu bifulumizibwa mu ggwanga byonna. Yuniti endala ezikola amanda zitegekeddwa okulinnyisibwa okutuuka ku busobozi obujjuvu nga October tannatuuka, ekigenda okwongera amaanyi ku puleesa ku ludda lw’okugaba.

Oludda lw’obwetaavu: Ebisuubirwa mu Sizoni ey’oku ntikko Ebiremye, Ebiddibwamu Ebibi Bisaasaana Mu LujegereObunafu bw’obwetaavu bweyongedde, era sizoni y’ennono eya “Golden September, Silver October” ey’okukozesa ebintu okusinga eremereddwa okutuukirira. Omuwendo gw’emirimu gya poliyesita mu bujjuvu gugudde okutuuka ku bitundu 74.2%, wansi okusinga ku mutindo ogwa bulijjo ogw’oku ntikko‐sizoni mu kiseera kino era ne wansi w’omuwendo omutono ogw’okudduka mu luwummula lw’ekivvulu kya Spring Festival. Okusinziira ku kitundu, wuzi ya polyester filament ebadde esinga okukendeera mu nkozesa, nga ekubiddwa ebiragiro ebinafu ebifulumizibwa ebweru w’eggwanga eby’engoye n’engoye ezikozesebwa enkomerero n’obwetaavu bw’awaka obugonvu. Staple fiber ne bottle‐grade polyester bisigadde nga bigumira nnyo naye era bikendeezezza ku bifulumizibwa ku diguli ez’enjawulo.

Ebigambo ebitali birungi bikyagenda mu maaso n’okutambuza okuyita mu lujegere lw’amakolero: ebyuma ebiluka engoye z’abakozesa enkomerero bikwata yinvensulo z’emifaliso enzirugavu mingi era nga birwana okusitula emiwendo gy’emirimu, ekiddamu kinyigiriza abakola poliyesita nga sitooka y’ebintu ebiwedde yeeyongera n’okukendeeza ku migabo gy’okulongoosa. Ebitongole ebisinga ebya poliyesita kati bikwata enkola ya “okugula ku bwetaavu, okufuga eby’obugagga ebisookerwako”, nga bikuuma eby’obugagga eby’omu ttaka ebya MEG nga biri wansi ennaku 10‐12 nga tebirina kwagala kuddamu kutereka mu ngeri ya proactively. Kino kiziyiza butereevu enkozesa ya MEG entuufu, era tewali kuddamu kwetaaga kweyoleka kweyolekera mu bbanga ettono.

Inventory Inflection: Emyalo gya East China Gikomekkereza Wiiki 8‐Destocking, Inventory Build Cycle EkakasiddwaEnkulaakulana mu by’obugagga (inventory developments) ekakasizza mu butongole ekifo eky’okukyukakyuka kw’obwetaavu n’obwetaavu. Wiiki eno, sitoowa za MEG ku myalo emikulu egy’omu East China zakomekkerezza omuze gw’okuggyawo sitokisi okumala wiiki 8 ez’omuddiring’anwa era ne ziwandiisa okuzimba okutono, nga zirinnya ttani nga 20,000 wiiki ku wiiki. Wadde ng’ebintu ebituufu eby’omwalo bisigala wansi bw’ogeraageranya n’ekiseera kye kimu mu myaka egiyise, nga biwa obuwagizi obumu obw’oku mwaliiro ku miwendo egy’oku mwalo, okuvaayo kw’omulembe gw’okuzimba kiraga nti akatale kakyuse okuva ku “tight balance” okudda ku “loosening expectation” regime.

Mu kiseera kye kimu, obungi bw’okulonda abantu ku mwalo buli wiiki bwakendeera wiiki ku wiiki, ekiraga nti okwagala okugula ebintu okuva mu byuma bya poliyesita ebiri wansi w’omugga okunafu n’okugula ebintu mu ngeri enkakali nga bigenda mpola. Nga ebifulumizibwa mu yuniti z’omunda mu ggwanga byeyongera okulinnya era ng’okutuuka ku bintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga kusuubirwa okudda engulu mpolampola mu Q4, akatale kasuubira nnyo nti ebintu by’emyalo bijja kuyingira mu mutendera gw’okukung’aanya ogw’olubeerera.

Cost & Margins: Amagoba agawukana mu makubo, Supply Elasticity EgendaAmagoba agatali gamu mu makubo gonna agakola ebintu nago gakola sipiidi y’okukula kw’ebintu. Ku MEG eyesigamiziddwa ku ethylene, emiwendo gya ethylene egy’ensi yonna okukka kukendeezezza ku puleesa y’ebisale era n’okuzzaawo buli kiseera emigabo gy’okulongoosa, okukuuma ebisikiriza abafulumya waggulu. Ku kkoolaasi okutuuka ku MEG, ebbeeyi y’amanda ag’ebbugumu mu ggwanga esigadde nga tekyukakyuka, era okuddamu okusooka mu bbeeyi ya MEG kukendeezezza ku kufiirwa eri yuniti ezikozesa amanda, ekivuddeko ebbidde ly’okuddamu okutandika n’okusumulula elasticity ku ludda lw’okugabira. Okunafuwa kw’obuyambi bw’ebisale nakyo kigguddewo ekifo ekirala eky’okukka ku miwendo gya MEG.

Entunula & Okubuulirira ku kugula ebintuNga tutunuulira mu maaso mu Q4, omuze gw’okuzimba yinvensulo ya MEG guteekebwawo mu bugazi wakati mu kulinnya kw’obwetaavu n’obwetaavu obugonvu, ekiteeka akazito okukka ku bbeeyi wakati. Mu bbanga eritali ly’ewala, ebintu ebitono eby’omwalo ebituufu bikyajja kuwa obuwagizi obumu ku miwendo egy’amaguzi, era akatale kayinza okusuubula mu bbanga nga lirina okusosola okugonvu. Mu bbanga ery’omu makkati, ng’okukung’aanya ebintu bwe kweyongera, emiwendo gy’emiwendo gijja kusigala ku puleesa.

Ku baguzi ba B2B ne bakasitoma abasuubula, tusaba okukulembeza okugula ebintu mu ngeri enkakali mu kiseera kino n’okwegendereza mu kuzimba ebintu ebinene. Kirungi okulondoola ennyo ebikwata ku bintu ebiri ku mwalo buli wiiki n’emiwendo gy’okukozesa poliyesita, n’okuddamu okutereka mu bitundutundu oluvannyuma lw’omutindo gw’ebintu okukakasibwa mu bujjuvu era emiwendo ne gikka ku mitendera egy’enjawulo. Ku ndagaano ez’ekiseera ekiwanvu, enkola z’emiwendo ezikwatagana n’ebiseera eby’omu maaso eziteesebwako zisobola okutwalibwa okusobola okwekuuma obulungi okukyukakyuka kw’emiwendo.